Brand or price? What drives tractor sales in times of austerity?

The market for new agricultural machinery is entering a period of marked slowdown. With year-over-year declines in new tractor sales reaching nearly 20% (AgriTrac data, comparing January–July 2025 to January–July 2026), manufacturers and importers must now grapple with a question that, until recently, was not as pressing: given cost pressures, do farmers still prioritize brand above all else, or is price increasingly becoming the deciding factor?

The answer is not unambiguous. Data from ARiMR, Statistics Poland (GUS), and Martin & Jacob show that the way purchasing decisions are made in the Polish agricultural machinery market is clearly changing. The Polish countryside is undergoing an accelerated lesson economic survival – farmers are analyzing more and more precisely not only the purchase price, but also operating costs, service availability, resale value, and the predictability of machine use. As a result, the choice of a tractor today is determined not by a single parameter, but by the actual balance of costs and benefits.

Cost pressure on farms – farmers count every penny

A good example of the changes taking place on farms is the ARiMR data concerning subsidies for elite or certified seed material under the de minimis aid formula. In the 2024 campaign, applications were submitted 65,138 applications, while in 2025 their number dropped to 43 270, or nearly 34%. After the application period ended in 2026, ARiMR announced that it had registered over 35k applications.

Table 1. Applications for subsidies for certified seed material under the de minimis scheme

Farmers are calculating their expenses more and more precisely and actively looking for the most cost-effective ways to finance them. Under margin pressure, the decision to purchase means of production, fertilizers, seeds, or machinery is increasingly rarely made independently of economic calculation.

This mechanism is particularly evident in investments of significantly higher value. If a farmer analyzes various financing and support options for expenses amounting to hundreds of zlotys per hectare, they will calculate the purchase of a tractor worth several hundred thousand zlotys in even greater detail. In such a situation, brand power still matters, but it must be weighed against price, financing cost, and the total cost of machine ownership.

Today, therefore, what matters is not only how much the machine costs, but how much it will cost the farm over its entire lifecycle.

Showdown in the marketplace: Giants versus „budget brands”

AgriTrac data shows that New Holland, John Deere, and Kubota – the big three of the Polish tractor market – are still maintaining their leading positions, accounting for a total of over 35% registrations. Their lead remains clear, but given the current cost pressures, it is becoming increasingly difficult to build that lead solely on the strength of the brand.

At the same time, manufacturers positioned in the lower price segments—including brands with Chinese, Korean, and Indian capital—are gaining a stronger foothold in the Polish market. A good example of this is the increase in registrations for the Kioti brand by 106,72% and for the Aupax brand by 5,83% (data from AgriTrac, comparing January–July 2025 to January–July 2026)

Such high growth rates must of course be analyzed in the context of a low base period. This does not change the fact, however, that In a shrinking market, the growth of some manufacturers comes at the expense of the market share of others.. The farmer has a specific investment budget and is comparing not only the purchase price, but also the equipment, operating costs, service availability, residual value, and total cost of ownership of the machine with increasing accuracy.

The battle is therefore no longer just about who sells more tractors. Increasingly important is who best responds to the need to maximize investment value with a limited farm budget.

Is the brand able to leverage a higher price?

Yes, but under one key condition: it must deliver value that the farmer is willing to translate into a higher purchase price.

Research by Martin & Jacob shows that, apart from price factors, the choice of a tractor is primarily determined by parameters and features directly related to productivity and operational risk. More than 90% respondents cited power, nearly 55% cited low failure rates, and more than 40% cited quick access to service and replacement parts. These are the very elements that build the perceived value of the brand and make it possible to justify its positioning in the higher price segment.

The problem is that the value of a product and the ability to finance its purchase are two different things today. A farmer may prefer a proven premium brand because they associate it with reliability, service availability, and lower downtime risk, while at the same time lacking sufficient capital for the purchase amid high financing costs and pressure on farm margins.

This is where appears financing as an element of brand value strategy. Brand Premium brands do not necessarily have to lower their list price to increase the accessibility of their offerings. Instead, they can use factory financing, leasing, or manufacturer credit as tools to lower the barrier to entry and improve the accessibility of the investment.

As a result, competition is no longer played out solely at the level list price of the tractor, but at the level of the entire economic purchase model: installment amount, financing cost, operating costs, residual value, service availability, and projected total cost of ownership (TCO).

Today, a premium brand must therefore not only justify why it costs more. It must also make its purchase financially achievable for the farmer.

Table 2. Premium brand value versus investment barriers on the farm

A premium brand can maintain a higher price if it can translate its technical, service, and operational advantage into real value for the farm. In current conditions, however, an equally important element of the offer is becoming accessible and tailored financing.

„Under current market conditions, a brand’s price premium cannot be based solely on its reputation. It must be reflected in performance parameters, reliability, the availability of service infrastructure, and the machine’s residual value. For a farm today, it is not CAPEX itself that is key, but rather the total cost of ownership and the operational risks associated with operating a tractor. At the same time, with limited financial liquidity, even an economically rational investment may be postponed. That is why manufacturer financing is becoming an increasingly important element of the competitiveness of premium offerings—it helps lower the barrier to entry without having to reduce the list price.”

— Jacek Skowroński, Management Board Member, Chief Technology Officer.

Marketing conclusion for the tractor industry

If a premium brand wants to effectively compete with the budget segment, its communication cannot be limited to exposing reliability, technology or design. Today, a key area of advantage is becoming lower barrier to entry for investment and making it easier for the farmer to make a purchasing decision right here and now.

This means the necessity of building an offer around financial instruments that limit pressure on farm liquidity and are tailored to seasonality and cash flow cycle in agriculture. Financing is no longer an add-on to the product – it is becoming an essential part of the brand's value proposition.

That is precisely the combination strong brand, predictable TCO and available financing can allow premium manufacturers to defend their price premium and limit the outflow of customers to cheaper alternatives, which are not always comparable in terms of operational risk.

„Today, a low machine price does not sell a tractor. A low barrier to entry does. Farmers increasingly evaluate an investment not by the list price itself, but by its impact on farm liquidity. Therefore, competitive advantage is determined today not only by CAPEX, but also by the financing structure, the installment amount, and the total cost of ownership. The manufacturer that can lower the barrier to entry without reducing product value gains a market advantage.”

— Marcin Chrobot, founder of the group and CEO of Martin & Jacob.

Precision marketing, which means the end of „one ad for everyone”

One of the biggest mistakes of modern agricultural marketing is the treatment of farmers as homogeneous target audience. With current margin pressure and limited household willingness to invest mass communication is losing its effectiveness, and a media budget without precise targeting can generate primarily costly reach instead of valuable leads.

A modern marketing strategy should be based on behavioral and contextual segmentation, taking into account, among others, the production profile, farm scale, investment potential, machinery park, and the stage of the purchasing journey. Also becoming crucial are purchase triggers – signals indicating that a given farm may currently be in the process of considering a specific investment.

In practice, this means moving away from the model „one ad – one message – all farmers” for the sake of communication dynamically tailored to the needs, potential, and decision-making moment of a specific recipient. This not only increases campaign effectiveness, but also allows for better utilization of the media budget and shortens the path from brand contact to a qualified sales lead.

What should modern, multi-channel communication look like?

Modern marketing communication should not be designed according to one universal farmer profile, but around specific problems and purchasing barriers characteristic of individual household segments. An example approach could look as follows:

Table 3. Farm segmentation vs. differentiation of purchasing barriers and marketing messages 

The above three segments may need the same product, but a completely different selling point. A grain producer needs a solution to the seasonality of revenues, a livestock breeder needs cost predictability, and a young farmer needs speed and convenience in the process.

That is the essence multichannel communicationwe are not changing the product, but we adjust the focus of the message to the actual purchasing barrier of a given segment. 

FARM AI™ by Adagri - precision that turns theory into profit

The segmentation theory sounds good. The real challenge, however, is translating it into execution. This raises the question: how to reach different segments of farmers at the same time with a message that corresponds to their actual needs, buying barriers, and decision-making moment?

The answer is FARM AI™ - Adagri's proprietary, award-winning solution on the European market, which combines unique agricultural BIG DATA with the potential of artificial intelligence. The technology allows a shift from traditional targeting based on basic demographic data or declarations to behavior modeling and prediction of purchase decisions.

„Over the years, the market has grown accustomed to simplifying analytics down to page views, clicks, or cookie IDs. We went a step further. Based on our proprietary analytical concept, we built the Agro Decision Genome™—an advanced model that does not try to assign a farmer to a single rigid label, but rather reflects the way their farm makes key decisions.”

— Jacek Skowroński, Management Board Member, Chief Technology Officer.

The mentioned system analyzes real behaviors in 10 key decision dimensions, including, among others,. price sensitivity, risk aversion, or technology adoption. Thanks to this, the algorithm can identify not only that, who is recipient, but above all what can determine his purchasing decision.

In practice, this means moving away from the „one product – one message – entire target audience” model. For a dairy farmer, the key trigger might be the guarantee of a fixed installment and predictable financing costs, while for a rapeseed producer, an offer that reduces the need to commit capital before the harvest will hold greater value.

This is precisely the essence of precision marketing in agriculture – the algorithm identifies the most likely purchasing barriers and motivators, and then allows communication to be tailored to them. As a result, the dealer does not have to improvise with arguments. They receive a precisely defined sales context and a message that addresses the real need of a specific segment. Thus, data ceases to be merely an analytical resource and becomes a tool that directly supports the sales process.

Summary for agro brands

At the end of 2026, the agro brands that will gain an advantage are those that move away from competition based solely on catalog price and they will start managing communication based on precise segmentation, real investment barriers, and the decision-making context of farms. Under conditions of margin pressure, limited liquidity, and growing investment caution, it is no longer enough to communicate „more for less.” You need to show a specific segment of farmers, why a given investment makes sense precisely in his economic and operational model.

Connection in-depth market data, behavioral analytics, and AI technology, such as Agro Decision Genome™, allows to move from mass reach to marketing precision – identifying the right audience, the right buying triggers, and the right arguments at a specific stage of the decision-making journey.

That's it data-driven marketing, precise targeting, and communication personalization can become one of the key tools for restoring sales effectiveness in a difficult market environment. Brands that are able to translate household data into specific communication and sales scenarios have a better chance not only to break the investment stalemate, but also defend sales targets, increase the efficiency of media budgets, and maintain a competitive advantage.

Source of data on subsidies

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